Carbon modelling is a practical tool that allows for real achievement of low carbon infrastructure solutions.
Modelling has been invaluable for informing our carbon reduction plans and tracking our progress. Operational carbon modelling is common, but leading organisations also measure embodied (also known as capital) carbon. This can be more complex, but the additional value gained makes it well worth pursuing.
Our carbon models revealed that only up to 11% of embodied carbon was in a pipe itself, while 89% was associated with the excavation, laying and backfill activities during that pipe's installation.
Carbon modelling is not fundamentally complex – at its simplest a carbon model is simply a model of the quantity of each material used, which is multiplied by its emission factor to calculate a carbon footprint.
The model should include quantities of energy consumed by each activity, such as material extraction, manufacturing, transport, installation, removal and recycling. The model may also include aspects of operational carbon.
Specifying these boundaries before modelling begins is essential to ensure consistency across all data sets within individual projects, and across projects at a programme level. The other critical question to answer at an early stage is how the model will be used to drive business outcomes, in order to ensure the model being built will serve those requirements. Measuring and modelling alone won't reduce carbon; it's what the business does with that data that matters.
Likewise, an individual calculation will have limited value – real advantages come from repeated modelling (optioneering) as the project evolves, and assessment of the differences each time. Models can also be combined on a programme scale to identify carbon ‘hotspots' across the programme.
Anglian Water policy requires that carbon is measured three times on every scheme before site work begins. By making carbon measurement a condition for passing through project gateways, we embed into the design process repeated challenges to the solutions being proposed, driving engineers to find ever greater reductions.
We do this because of the carbon reduction curve, which shows the potential to reduce carbon is inversely proportional with the progression of a project.
The greatest opportunity lies at the investment appraisal and early design stages, because the optimal way to minimise embodied carbon is to minimise new construction. This can be achieved by, for example, duplicating the function of a component or making better use of underused assets – strategies which our engineers consider further when challenged on carbon. Following definition of activity boundaries, selection of materials and products and calculation of quantities, the next step is to obtain data for the emissions factors associated with those choices. This data is often available at no cost.
A carbon model must be a basis for confident business decisions, so it should be as accurate as is reasonably practicable. But the pursuit of perfection can paralyse. It is better to use a less-than-100% accurate model – which can still provide valuable insight and reliable guidance – than to wait years before taking any decisions.
Looking at data out of context can lead to false conclusions. Consider comparisons between different materials or products: the design may require a smaller quantity of one option than the other, so carbon calculations must be adjusted to reflect this.
Design life must also be accounted for. A component with higher embodied carbon may be preferable to one with lower embodied carbon, if the former can be used for significantly longer or will result in lower operational carbon. In addition, waste must be taken into account. Any excess materials ordered for wastage also contribute to a project's carbon footprint, even if they are not used.
Indicative calculations can facilitate more informed decisions at an early stage, as long as the approach to measurement is consistent.
At Anglian Water we developed a Carbon Modeller tool containing over 1300 carbon models with raw carbon data on materials used by our suppliers, typical site activities, construction methods and transport options, for use in-house and by our value chain suppliers. Engineers draw from this tool at the design stage to experiment in search of the best low carbon solution.
Anglian Water's work is far from finished, but with modelling tools in place we will continue to further reduce the carbon associated with our services.
David Riley is the Anglian Water carbon manager and Mark Enzer is the Mott MacDonald group practice manager for water and environment and Green Construction Board Infrastructure Working Group member.
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